Millwall
Norwich City
The model leans Millwall at 42%. Expected goals: Millwall 1.47, Norwich City 1.03. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 51%. Millwall won 3 of their last 6; Norwich City won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Millwall | 46% | 2.18 | 2.50 | 37% | +9 |
| XDraw | 29% | 3.48 | 3.30 | 28% | +1 |
| 2Norwich City | 25% | 3.95 | 2.70 | 35% | −9 |
Pick: Millwall. Calibrated probability 42% (raw model output 46%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.47 – 1.03| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 71% | 29% |
| 2.5 | 45% | 55% |
| 3.5 | 24% | 76% |
| Both teams to score | Yes49% | No51% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.4%
- 1–012.1%
- 2–19.1%
- 2–08.9%
- 0–18.5%
- 0–08.3%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Millwall −0.5| Millwall line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 23% | – | 77% |
| -1 | 23% | 24% | 53% |
| -0.5 | 47% | – | 53% |
| 0 | 47% | 26% | 27% |
| +0.5 | 73% | – | 27% |
| +1 | 73% | 17% | 10% |
| +1.5 | 90% | – | 10% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.