Norwich City
West Bromwich Albion
The model leans Norwich City at 50%. Expected goals: Norwich City 1.50, West Bromwich Albion 0.88. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 53%. Norwich City won 3 of their last 6; West Bromwich Albion won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Norwich City | 51% | 1.97 | 1.96 | 48% | +3 |
| XDraw | 29% | 3.50 | 3.40 | 27% | +1 |
| 2West Bromwich Albion | 21% | 4.82 | 3.70 | 25% | −4 |
Pick: Norwich City. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 51%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 79%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.50 – 0.88| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 69% | 31% |
| 2.5 | 42% | 58% |
| 3.5 | 22% | 78% |
| Both teams to score | Yes45% | No55% |
Most likely scores
- 1–013.9%
- 1–112.2%
- 2–010.5%
- 0–09.3%
- 2–19.2%
- 0–18.1%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 53% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Norwich City −0.5| Norwich City line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 27% | – | 73% |
| -1 | 27% | 25% | 48% |
| -0.5 | 52% | – | 48% |
| 0 | 52% | 26% | 22% |
| +0.5 | 78% | – | 22% |
| +1 | 78% | 15% | 7% |
| +1.5 | 93% | – | 7% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.