Newcastle United
West Bromwich Albion
The model leans Newcastle United at 69%. Expected goals: Newcastle United 2.76, West Bromwich Albion 0.67. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 54%. Newcastle United won 2 of their last 6; West Bromwich Albion won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Newcastle United | 80% | 1.25 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 14% | 7.21 | – | – | – |
| 2West Bromwich Albion | 6% | 16.95 | – | – | – |
Pick: Newcastle United. Calibrated probability 69% (raw model output 80%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 94%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.76 – 0.67| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 86% | 14% |
| 2.5 | 66% | 34% |
| 3.5 | 45% | 55% |
| Both teams to score | Yes46% | No54% |
Most likely scores
- 2–012.4%
- 3–011.4%
- 1–09.0%
- 2–18.3%
- 4–07.8%
- 3–17.6%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Newcastle United −2| Newcastle United line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 61% | – | 39% |
| -1 | 61% | 20% | 19% |
| -0.5 | 81% | – | 19% |
| 0 | 81% | 13% | 7% |
| +0.5 | 93% | – | 7% |
| +1 | 93% | 5% | 2% |
| +1.5 | 98% | – | 2% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.