West Bromwich Albion
Charlton Athletic
The model leans West Bromwich Albion at 39%. Expected goals: West Bromwich Albion 1.19, Charlton Athletic 0.87. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 58%. West Bromwich Albion won 3 of their last 6; Charlton Athletic won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
Market: opening odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1West Bromwich Albion | 42% | 2.37 | 1.71 | 54% | −12 |
| XDraw | 32% | 3.09 | 3.50 | 26% | +6 |
| 2Charlton Athletic | 25% | 3.93 | 4.75 | 20% | +6 |
Pick: West Bromwich Albion. Calibrated probability 39% (raw model output 42%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.19 – 0.87| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 61% | 39% |
| 2.5 | 34% | 66% |
| 3.5 | 15% | 85% |
| Both teams to score | Yes40% | No60% |
Most likely scores
- 1–015.2%
- 1–113.2%
- 0–012.7%
- 0–111.1%
- 2–09.1%
- 2–17.9%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 58% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: West Bromwich Albion −0.5| West Bromwich Albion line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 19% | – | 81% |
| -1 | 19% | 25% | 56% |
| -0.5 | 44% | – | 56% |
| 0 | 44% | 30% | 27% |
| +0.5 | 73% | – | 27% |
| +1 | 73% | 18% | 9% |
| +1.5 | 91% | – | 9% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.