Predictions · EFL Cup · outside model coverage

Cheltenham Town

13
Won

Charlton Athletic

The model leans Charlton Athletic at 36%. Expected goals: Cheltenham Town 1.22, Charlton Athletic 1.30. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 53%. Cheltenham Town won 2 of their last 5; Charlton Athletic won 4 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Cheltenham Town33%2.99
XDraw29%3.40
2Charlton Athletic37%2.69

Pick: Charlton Athletic. Calibrated probability 36% (raw model output 37%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 71%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.22 – 1.30
LineOverUnder
1.572%28%
2.546%54%
3.525%75%
Both teams to scoreYes51%No49%

Most likely scores

  • 1112.8%
  • 0110.4%
  • 109.8%
  • 128.3%
  • 008.0%
  • 217.8%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Cheltenham Town 0
Cheltenham Town lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.515%85%
-115%20%65%
-0.535%65%
035%27%38%
+0.562%38%
+162%21%17%
+1.583%17%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.