Cheltenham Town
Charlton Athletic
The model leans Charlton Athletic at 36%. Expected goals: Cheltenham Town 1.22, Charlton Athletic 1.30. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 53%. Cheltenham Town won 2 of their last 5; Charlton Athletic won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Cheltenham Town | 33% | 2.99 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 29% | 3.40 | – | – | – |
| 2Charlton Athletic | 37% | 2.69 | – | – | – |
Pick: Charlton Athletic. Calibrated probability 36% (raw model output 37%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 71%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.22 – 1.30| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 72% | 28% |
| 2.5 | 46% | 54% |
| 3.5 | 25% | 75% |
| Both teams to score | Yes51% | No49% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.8%
- 0–110.4%
- 1–09.8%
- 1–28.3%
- 0–08.0%
- 2–17.8%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Cheltenham Town 0| Cheltenham Town line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 15% | – | 85% |
| -1 | 15% | 20% | 65% |
| -0.5 | 35% | – | 65% |
| 0 | 35% | 27% | 38% |
| +0.5 | 62% | – | 38% |
| +1 | 62% | 21% | 17% |
| +1.5 | 83% | – | 17% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.