Swindon Town
Cheltenham Town
The model leans Swindon Town at 53%. Expected goals: Swindon Town 2.09, Cheltenham Town 1.10. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 59%. Swindon Town won 2 of their last 6; Cheltenham Town won 2 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Swindon Town | 59% | 1.69 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 22% | 4.45 | – | – | – |
| 2Cheltenham Town | 18% | 5.46 | – | – | – |
Pick: Swindon Town. Calibrated probability 53% (raw model output 59%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 82%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.09 – 1.10| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 83% | 17% |
| 2.5 | 62% | 38% |
| 3.5 | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams to score | Yes59% | No41% |
Most likely scores
- 2–19.9%
- 1–19.4%
- 2–09.0%
- 1–08.6%
- 3–16.9%
- 3–06.3%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 55% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Swindon Town −1| Swindon Town line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 37% | – | 63% |
| -1 | 37% | 23% | 40% |
| -0.5 | 60% | – | 40% |
| 0 | 60% | 21% | 19% |
| +0.5 | 81% | – | 19% |
| +1 | 81% | 12% | 7% |
| +1.5 | 93% | – | 7% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.