Crystal Palace
Swindon Town
The model leans Crystal Palace at 63%. Expected goals: Crystal Palace 2.29, Swindon Town 0.72. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 53%. Crystal Palace won 1 of their last 4; Swindon Town won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Crystal Palace | 72% | 1.39 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 19% | 5.35 | – | – | – |
| 2Swindon Town | 9% | 10.86 | – | – | – |
Pick: Crystal Palace. Calibrated probability 63% (raw model output 72%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 91%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.29 – 0.72| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 80% | 20% |
| 2.5 | 58% | 42% |
| 3.5 | 35% | 65% |
| Both teams to score | Yes46% | No54% |
Most likely scores
- 2–013.0%
- 1–011.3%
- 3–09.9%
- 2–19.3%
- 1–18.1%
- 3–17.1%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 53% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Crystal Palace −1.5| Crystal Palace line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 49% | – | 51% |
| -1 | 49% | 24% | 27% |
| -0.5 | 73% | – | 27% |
| 0 | 73% | 17% | 10% |
| +0.5 | 90% | – | 10% |
| +1 | 90% | 7% | 3% |
| +1.5 | 97% | – | 3% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.