Cardiff City
Swindon Town
The model leans Cardiff City at 55%. Expected goals: Cardiff City 2.27, Swindon Town 1.08. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 60%. Cardiff City won 2 of their last 6; Swindon Town won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Cardiff City | 63% | 1.58 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 21% | 4.82 | – | – | – |
| 2Swindon Town | 16% | 6.32 | – | – | – |
Pick: Cardiff City. Calibrated probability 55% (raw model output 63%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 84%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.27 – 1.08| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 85% | 15% |
| 2.5 | 65% | 35% |
| 3.5 | 43% | 57% |
| Both teams to score | Yes59% | No41% |
Most likely scores
- 2–19.8%
- 2–09.1%
- 1–18.6%
- 1–08.0%
- 3–17.4%
- 3–06.9%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Cardiff City −1| Cardiff City line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 42% | – | 58% |
| -1 | 42% | 23% | 36% |
| -0.5 | 64% | – | 36% |
| 0 | 64% | 19% | 17% |
| +0.5 | 83% | – | 17% |
| +1 | 83% | 11% | 6% |
| +1.5 | 94% | – | 6% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.