Cardiff City
Roma
The model leans Roma at 42%. Expected goals: Cardiff City 1.29, Roma 1.69. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 60%. Cardiff City won 2 of their last 6; Roma won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Cardiff City | 28% | 3.54 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.83 | – | – | – |
| 2Roma | 46% | 2.19 | – | – | – |
Pick: Roma. Calibrated probability 42% (raw model output 46%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.29 – 1.69| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 80% | 20% |
| 2.5 | 57% | 43% |
| 3.5 | 35% | 65% |
| Both teams to score | Yes59% | No41% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.1%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–18.6%
- 0–27.3%
- 2–17.1%
- 1–06.6%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 52% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Roma −0.5| Cardiff City line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 12% | – | 88% |
| -1 | 12% | 17% | 71% |
| -0.5 | 29% | – | 71% |
| 0 | 29% | 24% | 47% |
| +0.5 | 53% | – | 47% |
| +1 | 53% | 22% | 25% |
| +1.5 | 75% | – | 25% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.