Roma
Fiorentina
The model leans Roma at 54%. Expected goals: Roma 1.90, Fiorentina 0.82. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 51%. Roma won 3 of their last 6; Fiorentina won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Roma | 62% | 1.62 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 24% | 4.23 | – | – | – |
| 2Fiorentina | 14% | 6.91 | – | – | – |
Pick: Roma. Calibrated probability 54% (raw model output 62%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 86%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.90 – 0.82| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 75% | 25% |
| 2.5 | 51% | 49% |
| 3.5 | 29% | 71% |
| Both teams to score | Yes48% | No52% |
Most likely scores
- 1–012.5%
- 2–011.9%
- 1–110.3%
- 2–19.7%
- 3–07.6%
- 0–06.6%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 44% · BTTS No 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Roma −1| Roma line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 38% | – | 62% |
| -1 | 38% | 25% | 37% |
| -0.5 | 63% | – | 37% |
| 0 | 63% | 22% | 15% |
| +0.5 | 85% | – | 15% |
| +1 | 85% | 11% | 5% |
| +1.5 | 95% | – | 5% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.