Queens Park Rangers
Fiorentina
The model leans Fiorentina at 42%. Expected goals: Queens Park Rangers 1.19, Fiorentina 1.58. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 56%. Queens Park Rangers won 3 of their last 6; Fiorentina won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Queens Park Rangers | 28% | 3.62 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 27% | 3.67 | – | – | – |
| 2Fiorentina | 45% | 2.21 | – | – | – |
Pick: Fiorentina. Calibrated probability 42% (raw model output 45%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 73%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.19 – 1.58| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 76% | 24% |
| 2.5 | 52% | 48% |
| 3.5 | 30% | 70% |
| Both teams to score | Yes55% | No45% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.8%
- 0–19.9%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–27.8%
- 1–07.4%
- 2–17.0%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 49% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Fiorentina −0.5| Queens Park Rangers line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 12% | – | 88% |
| -1 | 12% | 17% | 71% |
| -0.5 | 29% | – | 71% |
| 0 | 29% | 25% | 46% |
| +0.5 | 54% | – | 46% |
| +1 | 54% | 23% | 24% |
| +1.5 | 76% | – | 24% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.