Queens Park Rangers
AFC Wimbledon
The model leans Queens Park Rangers at 50%. Expected goals: Queens Park Rangers 1.77, AFC Wimbledon 1.20. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 59%. Queens Park Rangers won 3 of their last 6; AFC Wimbledon won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Queens Park Rangers | 50% | 2.01 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.92 | – | – | – |
| 2AFC Wimbledon | 25% | 4.06 | – | – | – |
Pick: Queens Park Rangers. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 50%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.77 – 1.20| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 80% | 20% |
| 2.5 | 57% | 43% |
| 3.5 | 35% | 65% |
| Both teams to score | Yes58% | No42% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.9%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–09.1%
- 2–08.1%
- 1–26.5%
- 0–16.1%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 52% · BTTS Yes 55%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Queens Park Rangers −0.5| Queens Park Rangers line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 28% | – | 72% |
| -1 | 28% | 23% | 49% |
| -0.5 | 51% | – | 49% |
| 0 | 51% | 23% | 26% |
| +0.5 | 74% | – | 26% |
| +1 | 74% | 15% | 10% |
| +1.5 | 90% | – | 10% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.