Predictions · Club Friendlies · outside model coverage

Queens Park Rangers

23
Lost

AFC Wimbledon

The model leans Queens Park Rangers at 50%. Expected goals: Queens Park Rangers 1.77, AFC Wimbledon 1.20. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 59%. Queens Park Rangers won 3 of their last 6; AFC Wimbledon won 1 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Queens Park Rangers50%2.01
XDraw26%3.92
2AFC Wimbledon25%4.06

Pick: Queens Park Rangers. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 50%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 75%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.77 – 1.20
LineOverUnder
1.580%20%
2.557%43%
3.535%65%
Both teams to scoreYes58%No42%

Most likely scores

  • 1110.9%
  • 219.7%
  • 109.1%
  • 208.1%
  • 126.5%
  • 016.1%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 52% · BTTS Yes 55%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Queens Park Rangers −0.5
Queens Park Rangers lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.528%72%
-128%23%49%
-0.551%49%
051%23%26%
+0.574%26%
+174%15%10%
+1.590%10%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.