AFC Wimbledon
Reading
The model leans Reading at 39%. Expected goals: AFC Wimbledon 1.24, Reading 1.49. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 56%. AFC Wimbledon won 1 of their last 6; Reading won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1AFC Wimbledon | 30% | 3.29 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.60 | – | – | – |
| 2Reading | 42% | 2.39 | – | – | – |
Pick: Reading. Calibrated probability 39% (raw model output 42%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 72%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.24 – 1.49| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 76% | 24% |
| 2.5 | 51% | 49% |
| 3.5 | 29% | 71% |
| Both teams to score | Yes55% | No45% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.0%
- 0–19.7%
- 1–29.0%
- 1–08.1%
- 2–17.5%
- 0–27.2%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 47% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: AFC Wimbledon 0| AFC Wimbledon line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 13% | – | 87% |
| -1 | 13% | 18% | 68% |
| -0.5 | 32% | – | 68% |
| 0 | 32% | 25% | 43% |
| +0.5 | 57% | – | 43% |
| +1 | 57% | 22% | 21% |
| +1.5 | 79% | – | 21% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.