AFC Wimbledon
Newport County
The model leans AFC Wimbledon at 50%. Expected goals: AFC Wimbledon 1.67, Newport County 1.01. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 53%. AFC Wimbledon won 1 of their last 6; Newport County won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1AFC Wimbledon | 52% | 1.93 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 27% | 3.76 | – | – | – |
| 2Newport County | 22% | 4.61 | – | – | – |
Pick: AFC Wimbledon. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 52%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 78%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.67 – 1.01| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 75% | 25% |
| 2.5 | 50% | 50% |
| 3.5 | 28% | 72% |
| Both teams to score | Yes52% | No48% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.6%
- 1–011.4%
- 2–19.7%
- 2–09.5%
- 0–16.9%
- 0–06.8%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 37% · BTTS Yes 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: AFC Wimbledon −0.5| AFC Wimbledon line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 29% | – | 71% |
| -1 | 29% | 24% | 47% |
| -0.5 | 53% | – | 47% |
| 0 | 53% | 24% | 23% |
| +0.5 | 77% | – | 23% |
| +1 | 77% | 15% | 8% |
| +1.5 | 92% | – | 8% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.