Newport County
Roma
The model leans Roma at 69%. Expected goals: Newport County 0.62, Roma 2.59. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 56%. Newport County won 1 of their last 6; Roma won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Newport County | 6% | 16.50 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 15% | 6.69 | – | – | – |
| 2Roma | 79% | 1.27 | – | – | – |
Pick: Roma. Calibrated probability 69% (raw model output 79%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 94%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.62 – 2.59| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 83% | 17% |
| 2.5 | 62% | 38% |
| 3.5 | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams to score | Yes43% | No57% |
Most likely scores
- 0–213.5%
- 0–311.7%
- 0–110.4%
- 1–28.4%
- 0–47.6%
- 1–37.3%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 56% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Roma −2| Newport County line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 2% | – | 98% |
| -1 | 2% | 5% | 93% |
| -0.5 | 7% | – | 93% |
| 0 | 7% | 14% | 80% |
| +0.5 | 20% | – | 80% |
| +1 | 20% | 21% | 58% |
| +1.5 | 42% | – | 58% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.