Bristol Rovers
Newport County
The model leans Bristol Rovers at 51%. Expected goals: Bristol Rovers 1.80, Newport County 0.96. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 52%. Bristol Rovers won 3 of their last 5; Newport County won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Bristol Rovers | 56% | 1.79 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 3.96 | – | – | – |
| 2Newport County | 19% | 5.33 | – | – | – |
Pick: Bristol Rovers. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 56%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 81%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.80 – 0.96| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 76% | 24% |
| 2.5 | 52% | 48% |
| 3.5 | 30% | 70% |
| Both teams to score | Yes51% | No49% |
Most likely scores
- 1–011.4%
- 1–111.0%
- 2–010.3%
- 2–19.8%
- 0–06.4%
- 3–06.2%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 48% · BTTS Yes 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Bristol Rovers −1| Bristol Rovers line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 33% | – | 67% |
| -1 | 33% | 25% | 43% |
| -0.5 | 57% | – | 43% |
| 0 | 57% | 23% | 20% |
| +0.5 | 80% | – | 20% |
| +1 | 80% | 13% | 7% |
| +1.5 | 93% | – | 7% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.