Newport County
Tranmere Rovers
The model leans Newport County at 41%. Expected goals: Newport County 1.50, Tranmere Rovers 1.14. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 54%. Newport County won 1 of their last 6; Tranmere Rovers won 1 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Newport County | 44% | 2.25 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.56 | – | – | – |
| 2Tranmere Rovers | 28% | 3.63 | – | – | – |
Pick: Newport County. Calibrated probability 41% (raw model output 44%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 72%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.50 – 1.14| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 74% | 26% |
| 2.5 | 49% | 51% |
| 3.5 | 27% | 73% |
| Both teams to score | Yes53% | No47% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.2%
- 1–010.8%
- 2–19.2%
- 0–18.1%
- 2–08.1%
- 0–07.2%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 43% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Newport County −0.5| Newport County line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 23% | – | 77% |
| -1 | 23% | 23% | 54% |
| -0.5 | 46% | – | 54% |
| 0 | 46% | 26% | 29% |
| +0.5 | 71% | – | 29% |
| +1 | 71% | 17% | 11% |
| +1.5 | 89% | – | 11% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.