Predictions · League Two · outside model coverage

Tranmere Rovers

22
Lost

Rotherham United

The model leans Rotherham United at 31%. Expected goals: Tranmere Rovers 1.20, Rotherham United 1.24. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 51%. Tranmere Rovers won 1 of their last 5; Rotherham United won 1 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Tranmere Rovers34%2.95
XDraw30%3.33
2Rotherham United36%2.77

Pick: Rotherham United. Calibrated probability 31% (raw model output 36%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 70%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.20 – 1.24
LineOverUnder
1.570%30%
2.544%56%
3.523%77%
Both teams to scoreYes50%No50%

Most likely scores

  • 1113.0%
  • 0110.9%
  • 1010.5%
  • 008.8%
  • 128.0%
  • 217.8%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 51% · BTTS Yes 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Tranmere Rovers 0
Tranmere Rovers lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.515%85%
-115%20%65%
-0.535%65%
035%27%37%
+0.563%37%
+163%21%16%
+1.584%16%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.