Rotherham United
Sheffield United
The model leans Sheffield United at 50%. Expected goals: Rotherham United 1.13, Sheffield United 1.72. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 57%. Rotherham United won 1 of their last 6; Sheffield United won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Rotherham United | 24% | 4.18 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.84 | – | – | – |
| 2Sheffield United | 50% | 2.00 | – | – | – |
Pick: Sheffield United. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 50%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 76%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.13 – 1.72| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 78% | 22% |
| 2.5 | 54% | 46% |
| 3.5 | 32% | 68% |
| Both teams to score | Yes56% | No44% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.2%
- 0–19.9%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–28.5%
- 1–06.5%
- 2–16.4%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Sheffield United −0.5| Rotherham United line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 10% | – | 90% |
| -1 | 10% | 15% | 75% |
| -0.5 | 25% | – | 75% |
| 0 | 25% | 24% | 51% |
| +0.5 | 49% | – | 51% |
| +1 | 49% | 23% | 28% |
| +1.5 | 72% | – | 28% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.