Swansea City
Sheffield United
The model leans Swansea City at 39%. Expected goals: Swansea City 1.63, Sheffield United 1.42. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 62%. Swansea City won 4 of their last 6; Sheffield United won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Swansea City | 42% | 2.41 | 2.50 | 37% | +4 |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.83 | 3.40 | 27% | −1 |
| 2Sheffield United | 32% | 3.09 | 2.65 | 35% | −3 |
Pick: Swansea City. Calibrated probability 39% (raw model output 42%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.63 – 1.42| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 81% | 19% |
| 2.5 | 59% | 41% |
| 3.5 | 37% | 63% |
| Both teams to score | Yes61% | No39% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.9%
- 2–18.9%
- 1–27.8%
- 1–07.7%
- 0–16.7%
- 2–26.4%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 54% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Swansea City 0| Swansea City line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 22% | – | 78% |
| -1 | 22% | 21% | 57% |
| -0.5 | 43% | – | 57% |
| 0 | 43% | 24% | 33% |
| +0.5 | 67% | – | 33% |
| +1 | 67% | 18% | 15% |
| +1.5 | 85% | – | 15% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.