Derby County
Swansea City
The model leans Derby County at 43%. Expected goals: Derby County 1.62, Swansea City 1.17. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 56%. Derby County won 1 of their last 5; Swansea City won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Derby County | 47% | 2.14 | 2.25 | 41% | +5 |
| XDraw | 27% | 3.71 | 3.20 | 29% | −2 |
| 2Swansea City | 26% | 3.79 | 3.10 | 30% | −4 |
Pick: Derby County. Calibrated probability 43% (raw model output 47%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.62 – 1.17| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 77% | 23% |
| 2.5 | 53% | 47% |
| 3.5 | 30% | 70% |
| Both teams to score | Yes55% | No45% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.7%
- 1–010.0%
- 2–19.4%
- 2–08.1%
- 0–17.2%
- 1–26.8%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 49% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Derby County −0.5| Derby County line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 25% | – | 75% |
| -1 | 25% | 23% | 52% |
| -0.5 | 48% | – | 52% |
| 0 | 48% | 25% | 28% |
| +0.5 | 72% | – | 28% |
| +1 | 72% | 17% | 11% |
| +1.5 | 89% | – | 11% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.