Portsmouth
Derby County
The model leans Derby County at 37%. Expected goals: Portsmouth 1.23, Derby County 1.41. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 55%. Portsmouth won 1 of their last 6; Derby County won 1 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Portsmouth | 32% | 3.17 | 1.96 | 47% | −16 |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.51 | 3.30 | 28% | 0 |
| 2Derby County | 40% | 2.50 | 3.75 | 25% | +15 |
Pick: Derby County. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 40%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 72%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.23 – 1.41| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 74% | 26% |
| 2.5 | 49% | 51% |
| 3.5 | 27% | 73% |
| Both teams to score | Yes54% | No46% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.4%
- 0–110.0%
- 1–08.7%
- 1–28.7%
- 2–17.6%
- 0–07.1%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 41% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Portsmouth 0| Portsmouth line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 14% | – | 86% |
| -1 | 14% | 19% | 67% |
| -0.5 | 33% | – | 67% |
| 0 | 33% | 26% | 41% |
| +0.5 | 59% | – | 41% |
| +1 | 59% | 22% | 20% |
| +1.5 | 80% | – | 20% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.