West Ham United
Portsmouth
The model leans West Ham United at 64%. Expected goals: West Ham United 2.41, Portsmouth 0.74. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 52%. West Ham United won 3 of their last 6; Portsmouth won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1West Ham United | 74% | 1.36 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 18% | 5.69 | – | – | – |
| 2Portsmouth | 9% | 11.48 | – | – | – |
Pick: West Ham United. Calibrated probability 64% (raw model output 74%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 91%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.41 – 0.74| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 82% | 18% |
| 2.5 | 61% | 39% |
| 3.5 | 38% | 62% |
| Both teams to score | Yes47% | No53% |
Most likely scores
- 2–012.5%
- 1–010.4%
- 3–010.1%
- 2–19.2%
- 1–17.6%
- 3–17.4%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 55% · BTTS No 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: West Ham United −1.5| West Ham United line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 52% | – | 48% |
| -1 | 52% | 23% | 26% |
| -0.5 | 74% | – | 26% |
| 0 | 74% | 16% | 9% |
| +0.5 | 91% | – | 9% |
| +1 | 91% | 7% | 3% |
| +1.5 | 97% | – | 3% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.