Darmstadt
Portsmouth
The model leans Darmstadt at 46%. Expected goals: Darmstadt 1.68, Portsmouth 1.16. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 57%. Darmstadt won 0 of their last 4; Portsmouth won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Darmstadt | 49% | 2.06 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.79 | – | – | – |
| 2Portsmouth | 25% | 3.99 | – | – | – |
Pick: Darmstadt. Calibrated probability 46% (raw model output 49%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.68 – 1.16| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 77% | 23% |
| 2.5 | 54% | 46% |
| 3.5 | 32% | 68% |
| Both teams to score | Yes56% | No44% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.4%
- 1–09.9%
- 2–19.6%
- 2–08.3%
- 0–16.8%
- 1–26.6%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Darmstadt −0.5| Darmstadt line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 27% | – | 73% |
| -1 | 27% | 23% | 50% |
| -0.5 | 50% | – | 50% |
| 0 | 50% | 24% | 26% |
| +0.5 | 74% | – | 26% |
| +1 | 74% | 16% | 10% |
| +1.5 | 90% | – | 10% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.