Darmstadt
Hannover 96
The model leans Hannover 96 at 37%. Expected goals: Darmstadt 1.59, Hannover 96 1.63. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 65%. Darmstadt won 0 of their last 4; Hannover 96 won 2 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Darmstadt | 37% | 2.74 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 3.94 | – | – | – |
| 2Hannover 96 | 38% | 2.63 | – | – | – |
Pick: Hannover 96. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 38%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.59 – 1.63| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 83% | 17% |
| 2.5 | 62% | 38% |
| 3.5 | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams to score | Yes64% | No36% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.3%
- 1–28.4%
- 2–18.2%
- 2–26.7%
- 0–16.5%
- 1–06.3%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 56% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Darmstadt 0| Darmstadt line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 19% | – | 81% |
| -1 | 19% | 19% | 62% |
| -0.5 | 38% | – | 62% |
| 0 | 38% | 23% | 39% |
| +0.5 | 61% | – | 39% |
| +1 | 61% | 19% | 20% |
| +1.5 | 80% | – | 20% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.