Predictions · 2. Bundesliga · outside model coverage

Darmstadt

01
Won

Hannover 96

The model leans Hannover 96 at 37%. Expected goals: Darmstadt 1.59, Hannover 96 1.63. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 65%. Darmstadt won 0 of their last 4; Hannover 96 won 2 of their last 4.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Darmstadt37%2.74
XDraw25%3.94
2Hannover 9638%2.63

Pick: Hannover 96. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 38%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 75%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.59 – 1.63
LineOverUnder
1.583%17%
2.562%38%
3.540%60%
Both teams to scoreYes64%No36%

Most likely scores

  • 1110.3%
  • 128.4%
  • 218.2%
  • 226.7%
  • 016.5%
  • 106.3%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 56% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Darmstadt 0
Darmstadt lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.519%81%
-119%19%62%
-0.538%62%
038%23%39%
+0.561%39%
+161%19%20%
+1.580%20%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.