Darmstadt
Holstein Kiel
The model leans Darmstadt at 50%. Expected goals: Darmstadt 1.78, Holstein Kiel 1.16. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 58%. Darmstadt won 0 of their last 4; Holstein Kiel won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Darmstadt | 51% | 1.97 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 3.92 | – | – | – |
| 2Holstein Kiel | 24% | 4.22 | – | – | – |
Pick: Darmstadt. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 51%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 76%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.78 – 1.16| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 79% | 21% |
| 2.5 | 56% | 44% |
| 3.5 | 34% | 66% |
| Both teams to score | Yes57% | No43% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.9%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–09.4%
- 2–08.4%
- 1–26.3%
- 0–16.1%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 51% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Darmstadt −0.5| Darmstadt line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 29% | – | 71% |
| -1 | 29% | 23% | 48% |
| -0.5 | 52% | – | 48% |
| 0 | 52% | 23% | 25% |
| +0.5 | 75% | – | 25% |
| +1 | 75% | 15% | 10% |
| +1.5 | 90% | – | 10% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.