Holstein Kiel
St. Pauli
The model leans Holstein Kiel at 35%. Expected goals: Holstein Kiel 1.17, St. Pauli 1.06. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 54%. Holstein Kiel won 1 of their last 6; St. Pauli won 0 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Holstein Kiel | 37% | 2.72 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 32% | 3.17 | – | – | – |
| 2St. Pauli | 32% | 3.16 | – | – | – |
Pick: Holstein Kiel. Calibrated probability 35% (raw model output 37%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 68%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.17 – 1.06| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 65% | 35% |
| 2.5 | 38% | 62% |
| 3.5 | 19% | 81% |
| Both teams to score | Yes45% | No55% |
Most likely scores
- 1–113.3%
- 1–012.6%
- 0–111.5%
- 0–010.8%
- 2–17.8%
- 2–07.3%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 55% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Holstein Kiel 0| Holstein Kiel line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 16% | – | 84% |
| -1 | 16% | 22% | 62% |
| -0.5 | 38% | – | 62% |
| 0 | 38% | 29% | 33% |
| +0.5 | 67% | – | 33% |
| +1 | 67% | 20% | 13% |
| +1.5 | 87% | – | 13% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.