St. Pauli
Deportivo A Coruña
The model leans Deportivo A Coruña at 42%. Expected goals: St. Pauli 0.80, Deportivo A Coruña 1.27. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 59%. St. Pauli won 0 of their last 6; Deportivo A Coruña won 3 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1St. Pauli | 22% | 4.48 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 32% | 3.16 | – | – | – |
| 2Deportivo A Coruña | 46% | 2.17 | – | – | – |
Pick: Deportivo A Coruña. Calibrated probability 42% (raw model output 46%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 78%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.80 – 1.27| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 61% | 39% |
| 2.5 | 34% | 66% |
| 3.5 | 16% | 84% |
| Both teams to score | Yes40% | No60% |
Most likely scores
- 0–116.0%
- 1–112.8%
- 0–012.6%
- 1–010.1%
- 0–210.1%
- 1–28.1%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 58% · BTTS No 55%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Deportivo A Coruña −0.5| St. Pauli line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 7% | – | 93% |
| -1 | 7% | 16% | 76% |
| -0.5 | 24% | – | 76% |
| 0 | 24% | 29% | 47% |
| +0.5 | 53% | – | 47% |
| +1 | 53% | 26% | 22% |
| +1.5 | 78% | – | 22% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.