Genoa
Deportivo A Coruña
The model leans Deportivo A Coruña at 36%. Expected goals: Genoa 1.05, Deportivo A Coruña 1.18. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 54%. Genoa won 1 of their last 4; Deportivo A Coruña won 3 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Genoa | 31% | 3.25 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 31% | 3.18 | – | – | – |
| 2Deportivo A Coruña | 38% | 2.65 | – | – | – |
Pick: Deportivo A Coruña. Calibrated probability 36% (raw model output 38%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 69%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.05 – 1.18| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 65% | 35% |
| 2.5 | 38% | 62% |
| 3.5 | 19% | 81% |
| Both teams to score | Yes45% | No55% |
Most likely scores
- 1–113.3%
- 0–112.7%
- 1–011.3%
- 0–010.8%
- 1–27.9%
- 0–27.5%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 55% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Genoa 0| Genoa line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 12% | – | 88% |
| -1 | 12% | 20% | 68% |
| -0.5 | 32% | – | 68% |
| 0 | 32% | 29% | 39% |
| +0.5 | 61% | – | 39% |
| +1 | 61% | 22% | 17% |
| +1.5 | 83% | – | 17% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.