Predictions · Club Friendlies · outside model coverage
Deportivo A Coruña
1–0
Won
Lugo
The model leans Deportivo A Coruña at 52%. Expected goals: Deportivo A Coruña 1.47, Lugo 0.54. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 67%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match59
29
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Deportivo A Coruña | 59% | 1.70 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 29% | 3.51 | – | – | – |
| 2Lugo | 13% | 7.97 | – | – | – |
Pick: Deportivo A Coruña. Calibrated probability 52% (raw model output 59%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 87%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.47 – 0.54| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 60% | 40% |
| 2.5 | 33% | 67% |
| 3.5 | 14% | 86% |
| Both teams to score | Yes32% | No68% |
Most likely scores
- 1–019.7%
- 2–014.4%
- 0–013.4%
- 1–110.7%
- 2–17.8%
- 0–17.3%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 57%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Deportivo A Coruña −1| Deportivo A Coruña line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 31% | – | 69% |
| -1 | 31% | 29% | 40% |
| -0.5 | 60% | – | 40% |
| 0 | 60% | 26% | 14% |
| +0.5 | 86% | – | 14% |
| +1 | 86% | 11% | 3% |
| +1.5 | 97% | – | 3% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.