Deportivo A Coruña
Valencia
The model leans Deportivo A Coruña at 36%. Expected goals: Deportivo A Coruña 1.21, Valencia 1.08. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 52%. Deportivo A Coruña won 3 of their last 5; Valencia won 1 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, 1xBet_Spain| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Deportivo A Coruña | 38% | 2.64 | 2.69 | 37% | +1 |
| XDraw | 31% | 3.22 | 3.10 | 32% | −1 |
| 2Valencia | 31% | 3.21 | 3.11 | 32% | −1 |
Pick: Deportivo A Coruña. Calibrated probability 36% (raw model output 38%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 69%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.21 – 1.08| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 67% | 33% |
| 2.5 | 40% | 60% |
| 3.5 | 20% | 80% |
| Both teams to score | Yes46% | No54% |
Most likely scores
- 1–113.2%
- 1–012.3%
- 0–110.9%
- 0–010.1%
- 2–18.0%
- 2–07.4%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 55% · BTTS No 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Deportivo A Coruña 0| Deportivo A Coruña line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 17% | – | 83% |
| -1 | 17% | 22% | 61% |
| -0.5 | 39% | – | 61% |
| 0 | 39% | 28% | 32% |
| +0.5 | 68% | – | 32% |
| +1 | 68% | 20% | 13% |
| +1.5 | 87% | – | 13% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.