Stoke City
Valencia
The model leans Valencia at 50%. Expected goals: Stoke City 0.82, Valencia 1.52. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 55%. Stoke City won 1 of their last 6; Valencia won 1 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Stoke City | 19% | 5.29 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.53 | – | – | – |
| 2Valencia | 53% | 1.89 | – | – | – |
Pick: Valencia. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 53%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 81%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.82 – 1.52| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 68% | 32% |
| 2.5 | 41% | 59% |
| 3.5 | 21% | 79% |
| Both teams to score | Yes44% | No56% |
Most likely scores
- 0–114.7%
- 1–112.0%
- 0–211.2%
- 0–09.6%
- 1–29.1%
- 1–07.9%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 54% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Valencia −0.5| Stoke City line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 6% | – | 94% |
| -1 | 6% | 14% | 80% |
| -0.5 | 20% | – | 80% |
| 0 | 20% | 26% | 54% |
| +0.5 | 46% | – | 54% |
| +1 | 46% | 26% | 28% |
| +1.5 | 72% | – | 28% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.