Stoke City
Swansea City
The model leans Swansea City at 30%. Expected goals: Stoke City 1.11, Swansea City 1.16. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 53%. Stoke City won 1 of their last 6; Swansea City won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Stoke City | 33% | 3.02 | 2.32 | 41% | −8 |
| XDraw | 31% | 3.20 | 3.25 | 29% | +2 |
| 2Swansea City | 36% | 2.80 | 3.10 | 30% | +5 |
Pick: Swansea City. Calibrated probability 30% (raw model output 36%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 69%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.11 – 1.16| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 66% | 34% |
| 2.5 | 40% | 60% |
| 3.5 | 19% | 81% |
| Both teams to score | Yes46% | No54% |
Most likely scores
- 1–113.3%
- 0–112.0%
- 1–011.4%
- 0–010.3%
- 1–27.7%
- 2–17.4%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 55% · BTTS No 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Stoke City 0| Stoke City line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 14% | – | 86% |
| -1 | 14% | 21% | 66% |
| -0.5 | 34% | – | 66% |
| 0 | 34% | 29% | 37% |
| +0.5 | 63% | – | 37% |
| +1 | 63% | 22% | 15% |
| +1.5 | 85% | – | 15% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.