Stoke City
Hull City
The model leans Hull City at 35%. Expected goals: Stoke City 1.17, Hull City 1.25. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 51%. Stoke City won 1 of their last 6; Hull City won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Stoke City | 33% | 3.03 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 30% | 3.32 | – | – | – |
| 2Hull City | 37% | 2.71 | – | – | – |
Pick: Hull City. Calibrated probability 35% (raw model output 37%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 70%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.17 – 1.25| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 70% | 30% |
| 2.5 | 44% | 56% |
| 3.5 | 23% | 77% |
| Both teams to score | Yes49% | No51% |
Most likely scores
- 1–113.0%
- 0–111.1%
- 1–010.4%
- 0–08.9%
- 1–28.1%
- 2–17.6%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 51% · BTTS Yes 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Stoke City 0| Stoke City line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 14% | – | 86% |
| -1 | 14% | 20% | 66% |
| -0.5 | 34% | – | 66% |
| 0 | 34% | 27% | 38% |
| +0.5 | 62% | – | 38% |
| +1 | 62% | 21% | 17% |
| +1.5 | 83% | – | 17% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.