Hull City
Manchester United
The model leans Manchester United at 67%. Expected goals: Hull City 0.88, Manchester United 2.75. Over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 56%. Hull City won 2 of their last 6; Manchester United won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Hull City | 9% | 11.35 | 9.00 | 11% | −2 |
| XDraw | 16% | 6.44 | 5.00 | 19% | −3 |
| 2Manchester United | 76% | 1.32 | 1.33 | 71% | +5 |
Pick: Manchester United. Calibrated probability 67% (raw model output 76%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 91%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.88 – 2.75| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 88% | 12% |
| 2.5 | 70% | 30% |
| 3.5 | 49% | 51% |
| Both teams to score | Yes55% | No45% |
Most likely scores
- 0–210.0%
- 0–39.2%
- 1–28.9%
- 1–38.1%
- 0–17.3%
- 1–16.5%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Manchester United −2| Hull City line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 3% | – | 97% |
| -1 | 3% | 7% | 91% |
| -0.5 | 9% | – | 91% |
| 0 | 9% | 14% | 76% |
| +0.5 | 24% | – | 76% |
| +1 | 24% | 21% | 56% |
| +1.5 | 44% | – | 56% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.