Manchester United
Leeds United
The model leans Manchester United at 51%. Expected goals: Manchester United 1.89, Leeds United 1.06. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 56%. Manchester United won 2 of their last 6; Leeds United won 3 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Manchester United | 56% | 1.80 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 24% | 4.09 | – | – | – |
| 2Leeds United | 20% | 5.02 | – | – | – |
Pick: Manchester United. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 56%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 80%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.89 – 1.06| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 79% | 21% |
| 2.5 | 56% | 44% |
| 3.5 | 34% | 66% |
| Both teams to score | Yes55% | No45% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.5%
- 1–09.9%
- 2–19.9%
- 2–09.4%
- 3–16.2%
- 3–05.9%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 51% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Manchester United −1| Manchester United line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 33% | – | 67% |
| -1 | 33% | 24% | 43% |
| -0.5 | 57% | – | 43% |
| 0 | 57% | 22% | 21% |
| +0.5 | 79% | – | 21% |
| +1 | 79% | 13% | 8% |
| +1.5 | 92% | – | 8% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.