Nottingham Forest
Leeds United
The model leans Nottingham Forest at 40%. Expected goals: Nottingham Forest 1.36, Leeds United 1.02. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 51%. Nottingham Forest won 2 of their last 6; Leeds United won 3 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Nottingham Forest | 43% | 2.30 | 2.45 | 39% | +5 |
| XDraw | 30% | 3.35 | 3.20 | 30% | 0 |
| 2Leeds United | 27% | 3.74 | 3.00 | 32% | −5 |
Pick: Nottingham Forest. Calibrated probability 40% (raw model output 43%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 73%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.36 – 1.02| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 69% | 31% |
| 2.5 | 43% | 57% |
| 3.5 | 22% | 78% |
| Both teams to score | Yes48% | No52% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.8%
- 1–012.6%
- 0–19.4%
- 0–09.2%
- 2–18.7%
- 2–08.6%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 53% · BTTS No 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Nottingham Forest −0.5| Nottingham Forest line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 21% | – | 79% |
| -1 | 21% | 24% | 55% |
| -0.5 | 45% | – | 55% |
| 0 | 45% | 27% | 28% |
| +0.5 | 72% | – | 28% |
| +1 | 72% | 18% | 10% |
| +1.5 | 90% | – | 10% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.