Nottingham Forest
Brest
The model leans Nottingham Forest at 61%. Expected goals: Nottingham Forest 2.12, Brest 0.73. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 53%. Nottingham Forest won 2 of their last 6; Brest won 0 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Nottingham Forest | 69% | 1.46 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 21% | 4.85 | – | – | – |
| 2Brest | 11% | 9.32 | – | – | – |
Pick: Nottingham Forest. Calibrated probability 61% (raw model output 69%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 89%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.12 – 0.73| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 78% | 22% |
| 2.5 | 54% | 46% |
| 3.5 | 32% | 68% |
| Both teams to score | Yes46% | No54% |
Most likely scores
- 2–013.0%
- 1–012.2%
- 2–19.5%
- 3–09.2%
- 1–18.9%
- 3–16.7%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Nottingham Forest −1.5| Nottingham Forest line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 45% | – | 55% |
| -1 | 45% | 25% | 30% |
| -0.5 | 70% | – | 30% |
| 0 | 70% | 19% | 12% |
| +0.5 | 88% | – | 12% |
| +1 | 88% | 8% | 3% |
| +1.5 | 97% | – | 3% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.