Brest
Guingamp
The model leans Brest at 53%. Expected goals: Brest 1.81, Guingamp 0.83. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 52%. Brest won 0 of their last 6; Guingamp won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Brest | 60% | 1.68 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 4.03 | – | – | – |
| 2Guingamp | 16% | 6.37 | – | – | – |
Pick: Brest. Calibrated probability 53% (raw model output 60%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 84%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.81 – 0.83| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 74% | 26% |
| 2.5 | 49% | 51% |
| 3.5 | 27% | 73% |
| Both teams to score | Yes47% | No53% |
Most likely scores
- 1–013.0%
- 2–011.7%
- 1–110.7%
- 2–19.7%
- 0–07.2%
- 3–07.0%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 43% · BTTS No 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Brest −1| Brest line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 35% | – | 65% |
| -1 | 35% | 25% | 39% |
| -0.5 | 61% | – | 39% |
| 0 | 61% | 23% | 17% |
| +0.5 | 83% | – | 17% |
| +1 | 83% | 12% | 5% |
| +1.5 | 95% | – | 5% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.