Le Mans
Brest
The model leans Le Mans at 40%. Expected goals: Le Mans 1.31, Brest 0.98. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 53%. Le Mans won 3 of their last 5; Brest won 0 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Unibet_France| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Le Mans | 43% | 2.33 | 2.55 | 37% | +6 |
| XDraw | 31% | 3.27 | 3.20 | 29% | +1 |
| 2Brest | 27% | 3.77 | 2.80 | 34% | −7 |
Pick: Le Mans. Calibrated probability 40% (raw model output 43%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 73%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.31 – 0.98| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 66% | 34% |
| 2.5 | 40% | 60% |
| 3.5 | 20% | 80% |
| Both teams to score | Yes45% | No55% |
Most likely scores
- 1–013.3%
- 1–113.0%
- 0–010.2%
- 0–110.0%
- 2–08.7%
- 2–18.5%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 55% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Le Mans −0.5| Le Mans line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 20% | – | 80% |
| -1 | 20% | 24% | 56% |
| -0.5 | 44% | – | 56% |
| 0 | 44% | 28% | 28% |
| +0.5 | 72% | – | 28% |
| +1 | 72% | 18% | 10% |
| +1.5 | 90% | – | 10% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.