Le Mans
Nantes
The model leans Le Mans at 42%. Expected goals: Le Mans 1.21, Nantes 0.74. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 62%. Le Mans won 3 of their last 5; Nantes won 0 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Le Mans | 46% | 2.18 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 33% | 3.06 | – | – | – |
| 2Nantes | 22% | 4.65 | – | – | – |
Pick: Le Mans. Calibrated probability 42% (raw model output 46%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 78%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.21 – 0.74| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 58% | 42% |
| 2.5 | 31% | 69% |
| 3.5 | 13% | 87% |
| Both teams to score | Yes37% | No63% |
Most likely scores
- 1–017.1%
- 0–014.2%
- 1–112.8%
- 0–110.6%
- 2–010.4%
- 2–17.7%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Le Mans −0.5| Le Mans line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 21% | – | 79% |
| -1 | 21% | 26% | 53% |
| -0.5 | 47% | – | 53% |
| 0 | 47% | 30% | 23% |
| +0.5 | 77% | – | 23% |
| +1 | 77% | 16% | 7% |
| +1.5 | 93% | – | 7% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.