Predictions · Club Friendlies · outside model coverage

Angers

23
Won

Le Mans

The model leans Le Mans at 30%. Expected goals: Angers 0.82, Le Mans 0.95. Over 2.5 goals 74%, both teams to score 64%. Angers won 1 of their last 3; Le Mans won 3 of their last 5.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Angers28%3.51
XDraw36%2.80
2Le Mans36%2.79

Pick: Le Mans. Calibrated probability 30% (raw model output 36%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 72%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 0.82 – 0.95
LineOverUnder
1.553%47%
2.526%74%
3.510%90%
Both teams to scoreYes34%No66%

Most likely scores

  • 0017.0%
  • 0116.2%
  • 1013.9%
  • 1113.3%
  • 027.7%
  • 126.3%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 60% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Angers 0
Angers lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.510%90%
-110%20%70%
-0.530%70%
030%33%37%
+0.563%37%
+163%23%14%
+1.586%14%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.