Angers
Lille
The model leans Lille at 50%. Expected goals: Angers 0.64, Lille 1.22. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 66%. Angers won 1 of their last 3; Lille won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Unibet_France| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Angers | 18% | 5.55 | 4.80 | 20% | −2 |
| XDraw | 33% | 3.06 | 3.55 | 27% | +6 |
| 2Lille | 49% | 2.03 | 1.75 | 54% | −5 |
Pick: Lille. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 49%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 82%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.64 – 1.22| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 55% | 45% |
| 2.5 | 29% | 71% |
| 3.5 | 12% | 88% |
| Both teams to score | Yes33% | No67% |
Most likely scores
- 0–119.1%
- 0–015.6%
- 1–112.1%
- 0–211.7%
- 1–09.9%
- 1–27.4%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 57%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Lille −0.5| Angers line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 5% | – | 95% |
| -1 | 5% | 14% | 81% |
| -0.5 | 19% | – | 81% |
| 0 | 19% | 30% | 50% |
| +0.5 | 50% | – | 50% |
| +1 | 50% | 28% | 23% |
| +1.5 | 77% | – | 23% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.