Auxerre
Angers
The model leans Auxerre at 44%. Expected goals: Auxerre 1.21, Angers 0.67. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 65%. Auxerre won 1 of their last 4; Angers won 1 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Unibet_France| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Auxerre | 48% | 2.09 | 2.05 | 46% | +2 |
| XDraw | 33% | 3.04 | 3.25 | 29% | +4 |
| 2Angers | 19% | 5.17 | 3.70 | 25% | −6 |
Pick: Auxerre. Calibrated probability 44% (raw model output 48%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 81%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.21 – 0.67| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 56% | 44% |
| 2.5 | 29% | 71% |
| 3.5 | 12% | 88% |
| Both teams to score | Yes34% | No66% |
Most likely scores
- 1–018.5%
- 0–015.3%
- 1–112.4%
- 2–011.1%
- 0–110.3%
- 2–17.5%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Auxerre −0.5| Auxerre line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 22% | – | 78% |
| -1 | 22% | 27% | 51% |
| -0.5 | 49% | – | 51% |
| 0 | 49% | 30% | 21% |
| +0.5 | 79% | – | 21% |
| +1 | 79% | 15% | 6% |
| +1.5 | 94% | – | 6% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.