Sochaux
Auxerre
The model leans Auxerre at 37%. Expected goals: Sochaux 0.87, Auxerre 1.11. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 60%. Sochaux won 1 of their last 5; Auxerre won 1 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Sochaux | 27% | 3.71 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 33% | 2.99 | – | – | – |
| 2Auxerre | 40% | 2.53 | – | – | – |
Pick: Auxerre. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 40%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 73%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.87 – 1.11| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 59% | 41% |
| 2.5 | 32% | 68% |
| 3.5 | 14% | 86% |
| Both teams to score | Yes39% | No61% |
Most likely scores
- 0–115.4%
- 0–013.9%
- 1–113.3%
- 1–012.1%
- 0–28.5%
- 1–27.4%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Sochaux 0| Sochaux line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 9% | – | 91% |
| -1 | 9% | 19% | 72% |
| -0.5 | 28% | – | 72% |
| 0 | 28% | 31% | 41% |
| +0.5 | 59% | – | 41% |
| +1 | 59% | 24% | 17% |
| +1.5 | 83% | – | 17% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.