Predictions · Club Friendlies · outside model coverage
Auxerre
5–2
Won
St Maur Lusitanos
The model leans Auxerre at 53%. Expected goals: Auxerre 0.99, St Maur Lusitanos 0.05. Over 2.5 goals 91%, both teams to score 97%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match61
38
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Auxerre | 61% | 1.65 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 38% | 2.66 | – | – | – |
| 2St Maur Lusitanos | 2% | 59.17 | – | – | – |
Pick: Auxerre. Calibrated probability 53% (raw model output 61%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 98%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.99 – 0.05| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 28% | 72% |
| 2.5 | 9% | 91% |
| 3.5 | 2% | 98% |
| Both teams to score | Yes3% | No97% |
Most likely scores
- 0–035.5%
- 1–035.0%
- 2–017.2%
- 3–05.7%
- 0–11.8%
- 1–11.7%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 72% · BTTS No 65%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Auxerre −1| Auxerre line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 25% | – | 75% |
| -1 | 25% | 36% | 39% |
| -0.5 | 61% | – | 39% |
| 0 | 61% | 37% | 2% |
| +0.5 | 98% | – | 2% |
| +1 | 98% | 2% | 0% |
| +1.5 | 100% | – | 0% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.