Red Star
Sochaux
The model leans Red Star at 39%. Expected goals: Red Star 1.24, Sochaux 0.92. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 56%. Red Star won 1 of their last 5; Sochaux won 1 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Red Star | 42% | 2.37 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 32% | 3.17 | – | – | – |
| 2Sochaux | 26% | 3.81 | – | – | – |
Pick: Red Star. Calibrated probability 39% (raw model output 42%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.24 – 0.92| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 64% | 36% |
| 2.5 | 37% | 63% |
| 3.5 | 17% | 83% |
| Both teams to score | Yes43% | No57% |
Most likely scores
- 1–014.3%
- 1–113.2%
- 0–011.5%
- 0–110.6%
- 2–08.8%
- 2–18.2%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 56% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Red Star −0.5| Red Star line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 19% | – | 81% |
| -1 | 19% | 24% | 57% |
| -0.5 | 43% | – | 57% |
| 0 | 43% | 29% | 28% |
| +0.5 | 72% | – | 28% |
| +1 | 72% | 18% | 10% |
| +1.5 | 90% | – | 10% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.