Nantes
Red Star
The model leans Nantes at 37%. Expected goals: Nantes 1.18, Red Star 0.95. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 56%. Nantes won 0 of their last 6; Red Star won 1 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Nantes | 40% | 2.51 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 32% | 3.11 | – | – | – |
| 2Red Star | 28% | 3.58 | – | – | – |
Pick: Nantes. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 40%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 72%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.18 – 0.95| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 63% | 37% |
| 2.5 | 36% | 64% |
| 3.5 | 17% | 83% |
| Both teams to score | Yes42% | No58% |
Most likely scores
- 1–014.1%
- 1–113.3%
- 0–012.0%
- 0–111.3%
- 2–08.3%
- 2–17.9%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 58% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Nantes 0| Nantes line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 18% | – | 82% |
| -1 | 18% | 24% | 59% |
| -0.5 | 41% | – | 59% |
| 0 | 41% | 29% | 29% |
| +0.5 | 71% | – | 29% |
| +1 | 71% | 19% | 10% |
| +1.5 | 90% | – | 10% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.