Boulogne
Red Star
The model leans Red Star at 39%. Expected goals: Boulogne 0.97, Red Star 1.28. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 54%. Boulogne won 0 of their last 5; Red Star won 1 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Boulogne | 27% | 3.70 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 31% | 3.23 | – | – | – |
| 2Red Star | 42% | 2.38 | – | – | – |
Pick: Red Star. Calibrated probability 39% (raw model output 42%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 73%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.97 – 1.28| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 66% | 34% |
| 2.5 | 39% | 61% |
| 3.5 | 19% | 81% |
| Both teams to score | Yes45% | No55% |
Most likely scores
- 0–113.4%
- 1–113.1%
- 0–010.5%
- 1–010.2%
- 0–28.6%
- 1–28.4%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 55% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Red Star −0.5| Boulogne line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 10% | – | 90% |
| -1 | 10% | 18% | 72% |
| -0.5 | 28% | – | 72% |
| 0 | 28% | 28% | 43% |
| +0.5 | 57% | – | 43% |
| +1 | 57% | 24% | 20% |
| +1.5 | 80% | – | 20% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.