Montpellier
Boulogne
The model leans Montpellier at 51%. Expected goals: Montpellier 1.53, Boulogne 0.63. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 62%. Montpellier won 2 of their last 4; Boulogne won 0 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Montpellier | 58% | 1.73 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.59 | – | – | – |
| 2Boulogne | 14% | 7.06 | – | – | – |
Pick: Montpellier. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 58%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 86%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.53 – 0.63| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 64% | 36% |
| 2.5 | 37% | 63% |
| 3.5 | 17% | 83% |
| Both teams to score | Yes37% | No63% |
Most likely scores
- 1–017.6%
- 2–013.5%
- 0–011.5%
- 1–111.1%
- 2–18.5%
- 0–17.3%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 56% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Montpellier −1| Montpellier line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 31% | – | 69% |
| -1 | 31% | 28% | 41% |
| -0.5 | 59% | – | 41% |
| 0 | 59% | 26% | 15% |
| +0.5 | 85% | – | 15% |
| +1 | 85% | 11% | 4% |
| +1.5 | 96% | – | 4% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.